The three major A-share indexes all closed down. The gem index bottomed out, rebounded, re-created and adjusted new low prefabricated construction and other sectors led the decline. [stock market closed]

The market fluctuated slightly throughout the day, and the gem refers to the bottoming out and rebound in the market to create a new low of adjustment. On the disk, the banking sector strengthened in the afternoon, while the food plate rebounded. In addition, a number of plates rise and fall in intraday trading. In terms of decline, logistics, tourism, construction and other sectors fell into adjustment. On the whole, stocks fell more than rose less, more than 3600 stocks in the two cities fell, and there was a marked increase in the number of stocks that fell by the limit in the two markets at the end of the day. More than 60 stocks in the two cities fell by more than 9%, with an explosion rate of nearly 50%. Today's turnover on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets is 911.2 billion, 41.1 billion higher than that of the previous trading day. In terms of the plate, China Shipping Department, banking, food processing, CRO and other sectors led the increase, while logistics, tourism, prefabricated construction, virtual digital people and other sectors led the decline. By the close, the Prev index was down 0.45%, the Shenzhen index was down 0.56%, and the gem index was down 0.24%. Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Connect is closed today because of Hong Kong public holiday.

For the future market trend, institutions have expressed their views.

Citic Construction Investment believes that the 413 National standing Committee emphasizes promoting consumption, financial support for the real economy, stabilizing the economic fundamentals and ensuring the improvement of people's livelihood. In the aspect of finance and taxation, it is proposed for the first time to use export tax rebate to boost foreign trade; in the monetary side, it is proposed to use monetary policy tools such as reserve reduction; in the financial aspect, large banks are proposed to reduce the reserve ratio in an orderly manner; in terms of people's livelihood, it is proposed to promote medical and health care, pension, care, and so on; other aspects have proposed to expand consumption in key areas. Generally speaking, the policy tone of the State standing Committee to boost the real economy and promote "steady growth" will not change.

Open source securities believe that the logic of interest rate reduction is consistent with that of reserve requirement reduction, that is, the impact of the epidemic, the decline of the stock market, and the weakness of real estate all provide the rationality of interest rate reduction; but the restriction of interest rate reduction also exists. under the background of the Fed raising interest rates sharply and the interest rates of China and the United States are upside down, there is indeed the possibility of side effects of interest rate cuts by the people's Bank of China. From the experience of the exchange rate reform on August 11, 2015, the impact of the exchange rate on the stock market is uncertain, and if there is "interest rate reduction-exchange rate depreciation-stock market decline", it is not conducive to stabilize capital markets and market expectations.

Zhongtai Securities believes that in the post-epidemic era, the monetary policy of various countries began to turn around, and the continuous increase in interest rates and shrinking tables weakened the tail-warping impact of liquidity easing. Exports from South Korea, the canary of the global economy, have been slowing since June 2021, with the latest data showing the fastest decline in manufacturing PMI since July 2020, and a warning has been issued on the global demand side. Similarly, the growth rate of China's exports, like China's PPI, is a direct reflection of the global manufacturing supply and demand pattern, and the data clearly point to the recovery of supply and demand disturbance caused by the epidemic.

If you look at the recent two smooth upward stages of PPI, 2009-10 and 16-17, the former is 4 trillion yuan, while the latter is shed reform + supply-side reform, both of which are driven by strong demand, but this time it is more the supply impact brought by the epidemic, and the decision on the trend of commodity prices is gradually shifting to the demand side.

The demand side is weak, at least in the short term. Even if the current continuous volume of social integration data can work, that is, the effect of broad credit, it may not be until at least the second half of the year.